Land as a binding constraint to cluster-based development in Ethiopia: To cluster or not to cluster?

INTRODUCTION: As one of the agglomeration models targeting cluster-based rural development, cluster farming has been promoted in Ethiopia and it is already reported to have significant welfare implications, but participation rates are not as high as expected. This study examines the role of land as a constraint to the development of cluster-based development in Ethiopia both using extensive and intensive measures of cluster farming. The study further disaggregates farm households based on their farm size to better understand potential heterogeneities in the relationship between farm size and cluster farming. The paper also documents other household socio-economic and network characteristics that may matter in cluster farming. METHODS: We use a large-scale farm household data from 3,969 households coupled with some expert insights on cluster farming in Ethiopia. Households in the study areas grow major staples such as maize, wheat, teff, malt barley, and sesame in four main regions of Ethiopia. We employ a double hurdle model to examine both the decision to participate and the extent to which households participate in cluster farming. By extent of participation, we refer to the amount of land and share of land farm households contribute to cluster farming. For robustness purposes, we also estimate the Tobit and Linear Probability Models. RESULTS: We show a positive association between farm size and cluster farming both at the extensive and intensive margins. This relationship turns negative for large amounts of land. This shows that cluster farming increases with farm size up to a threshold beyond which it declines. We also find suggestive evidence that participation rates are lower for small-scale farms, but also declines for large-scale farms. In addition, we show that access to information and network characteristics also matter in enabling cluster farming. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study are relevant in the framework of plans to upscale the cluster-based development initiative in Ethiopia. Attention to landholding issues is key and may be an important area where policy action can be geared to boost cluster farming. Moreover, our results inform potential targeting plans that aim to increase the participation of small-scale farmers who are usually the intended targets of such programs.

Clinical assessment of momelotinib drug-drug interactions via CYP3A metabolism and transporters.

Momelotinib-approved for treatment of myelofibrosis in adults with anemia-and its major active metabolite, M21, were assessed as drug-drug interaction (DDI) victims with a strong cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 inhibitor (multiple-dose ritonavir), an organic anion transporting polypeptide (OATP) 1B1/1B3 inhibitor (single-dose rifampin), and a strong CYP3A4 inducer (multiple-dose rifampin). Momelotinib DDI perpetrator potential (multiple-dose) was evaluated with CYP3A4 and breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP) substrates (midazolam and rosuvastatin, respectively). DDI was assessed from changes in maximum plasma concentration (Cmax), area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), time to reach Cmax, and half-life. The increase in momelotinib (23% Cmax, 14% AUC) or M21 (30% Cmax, 24% AUC) exposure with ritonavir coadministration was not clinically relevant. A moderate increase in momelotinib (40% Cmax, 57% AUC) and minimal change in M21 was observed with single-dose rifampin. A moderate decrease in momelotinib (29% Cmax, 46% AUC) and increase in M21 (31% Cmax, 15% AUC) were observed with multiple-dose rifampin compared with single-dose rifampin. Due to potentially counteracting effects of OATP1B1/1B3 inhibition and CYP3A4 induction, multiple-dose rifampin did not significantly change momelotinib pharmacokinetics compared with momelotinib alone (Cmax no change, 15% AUC decrease). Momelotinib did not alter the pharmacokinetics of midazolam (8% Cmax, 16% AUC decreases) or 1'-hydroxymidazolam (14% Cmax, 16% AUC decreases) but increased rosuvastatin Cmax by 220% and AUC by 170%. Safety findings were mild in this short-term study in healthy volunteers. This analysis suggests that momelotinib interactions with OATP1B1/1B3 inhibitors and BCRP substrates may warrant monitoring for adverse reactions or dose adjustments.

Cellular and molecular mechanisms of skin wound healing.

Wound healing is a complex process that involves the coordinated actions of many different tissues and cell lineages. It requires tight orchestration of cell migration, proliferation, matrix deposition and remodelling, alongside inflammation and angiogenesis. Whereas small skin wounds heal in days, larger injuries resulting from trauma, acute illness or major surgery can take several weeks to heal, generally leaving behind a fibrotic scar that can impact tissue function. Development of therapeutics to prevent scarring and successfully repair chronic wounds requires a fuller knowledge of the cellular and molecular mechanisms driving wound healing. In this Review, we discuss the current understanding of the different phases of wound healing, from clot formation through re-epithelialization, angiogenesis and subsequent scar deposition. We highlight the contribution of different cell types to skin repair, with emphasis on how both innate and adaptive immune cells in the wound inflammatory response influence classically studied wound cell lineages, including keratinocytes, fibroblasts and endothelial cells, but also some of the less-studied cell lineages such as adipocytes, melanocytes and cutaneous nerves. Finally, we discuss newer approaches and research directions that have the potential to further our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning tissue repair.

Case Report: Profound newborn leukopenia related to a novel RAC2 variant.

We report the case of a 1-week-old male born full-term, who had two inconclusive severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) newborn screens and developed scalp cellulitis and Escherichia coli bacteremia. He did not pass early confirmatory hearing screens. Initial blood counts and lymphocyte flow cytometry revealed profound neutropenia and lymphopenia with a T-/B-/NK- phenotype. Red blood cell adenosine deaminase 1 activity was within normal limits. A presumptive diagnosis of reticular dysgenesis was considered. Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor was started, but there was no improvement in neutrophil counts. Subsequent lymphocyte flow cytometry at around 4 weeks of age demonstrated an increase in T-, B- and NK-cell numbers, eliminating suspicion for SCID and raising concern for congenital neutropenia and bone marrow failure syndromes. Genetic testing revealed a novel variant in RAC2 [c.181C>A (p.Gln61Lys)] (Q61K). RAC2, a Ras-related GTPase, is the dominant RAC protein expressed in hematopoietic cells and is involved with various downstream immune-mediated responses. Pathogenic RAC2 variants show significant phenotypic heterogeneity (spanning from neutrophil defects to combined immunodeficiency) across dominant, constitutively activating, dominant activating, dominant negative, and autosomal recessive subtypes. Given the identification of a novel variant, functional testing was pursued to evaluate aberrant pathways described in other RAC2 pathogenic variants. In comparison to wild-type RAC2, the Q61K variant supported elevated superoxide production under both basal and PMA-stimulated conditions, increased PAK1 binding, and enhanced plasma membrane ruffling, consistent with other dominant, constitutively active mutations. This case highlights the diagnostic challenge associated with genetic variants identified via next-generation sequencing panels and the importance of functional assays to confirm variant pathogenicity.

Quality measures in pre-liver transplant care by the Practice Metrics Committee of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

INTRODUCTION: The LT evaluation and waitlisting process is subject to variations in care that can impede quality. The American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) Practice Metrics Committee (PMC) developed quality measures and patient-reported experience measures (PREMs) along the continuum of pre-LT care to reduce care variation and guide patient-centered care. METHODS: Following a systematic literature review, candidate pre-LT measures were grouped into four phases of care: referral, evaluation and waitlisting, waitlist management, and organ acceptance. A modified Delphi panel with content expertise in hepatology, transplant surgery, psychiatry, transplant infectious disease, palliative care and social work selected the final set. Candidate PREMs spanned domains of cognitive health, emotional health, social well-being, and understanding the LT process. RESULTS: Of the 71 candidate measures, 41 were selected: 9 for referral; 20 for evaluation and waitlisting; 7 for waitlist management; and 5 for organ acceptance. A total of 14 were related to structure, 17 were process measures and 10 were outcome measures that focused on elements not typically measured in routine care. Among the PREMs, LT candidates rated items from understanding the LT process domain as the most important. CONCLUSION: The proposed pre-LT measures provide a framework for quality improvement and care standardization among LT candidates. Select measures apply to various stakeholders such as referring practitioners in the community and LT centers. Clinically meaningful measures that are distinct from those used for regulatory transplant reporting may facilitate local QI initiatives to improve access and quality of care.

The effects of antibiotic exposures on the gut resistome during hematopoietic cell transplantation in children.

Antibiotic resistance is a global threat driven primarily by antibiotic use. We evaluated the effects of antibiotic exposures on the gut microbiomes and resistomes of children at high risk of colonization by antibiotic-resistant bacteria. We performed shotgun metagenomic sequencing of 691 serially collected fecal samples from 80 children (<18 years) undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation. We evaluated the effects of aerobic (cefepime, vancomycin, fluoroquinolones, aminoglycosides, macrolides, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole) and anaerobic (piperacillin-tazobactam, carbapenems, metronidazole, and clindamycin) antibiotic exposures on the diversity and composition of the gut microbiome and resistome. We identified 372 unique antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs); the most frequent ARGs identified encode resistance to tetracyclines (n = 88), beta-lactams (n = 84), and fluoroquinolones (n = 79). Both aerobic and anaerobic antibiotic exposures were associated with a decrease in the number of bacterial species (aerobic, ß = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.79; anaerobic, ß = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.82) and the number of unique ARGs (aerobic, ß = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.90; anaerobic, ß = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.88) within the gut metagenome. However, only antibiotic regimens that included anaerobic activity were associated with an increase in acquisition of new ARGs (anaerobic, ß = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.12, 2.01) and an increase in the relative abundance of ARGs in the gut resistome (anaerobic, ß = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.15, 2.27). Specific antibiotic exposures were associated with distinct changes in the number and abundance of ARGs for individual antibiotic classes. Our findings detail the impact of antibiotics on the gut microbiome and resistome and demonstrate that anaerobic antibiotics are particularly likely to promote acquisition and expansion of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Transsynaptic Degeneration of Retinal Ganglion Cells Following Lesions to Primary Visual Cortex in Marmosets.

Purpose: A lesion to primary visual cortex (V1) in primates can produce retrograde transneuronal degeneration in the dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and retina. We investigated the effect of age at time of lesion on LGN volume and retinal ganglion cell (RGC) density in marmoset monkeys. Methods: Retinas and LGNs were obtained about 2 years after a unilateral left-sided V1 lesion as infants (n = 7) or young adult (n = 1). Antibodies against RBPMS were used to label all RGCs, and antibodies against CaMKII or GABAA receptors were used to label nonmidget RGCs. Cell densities were compared in the left and right hemiretina of each eye. The LGNs were stained with the nuclear marker NeuN or for Nissl substance. Results: In three animals lesioned within the first 2 postnatal weeks, the proportion of RGCs lost within 5 mm of the fovea was ∼twofold higher than after lesions at 4 or 6 weeks. There was negligible loss in the animal lesioned at 2 years of age. A positive correlation between RGC loss and LGN volume reduction was evident. No loss of CaMKII-positive or GABAA receptor-positive RGCs was apparent within 2 mm of the fovea in any of the retinas investigated. Conclusions: Susceptibility of marmoset RGCs to transneuronal degeneration is high at birth and declines over the first 6 postnatal weeks. High survival rates of CaMKII and GABAA receptor-positive RGCs implies that widefield and parasol cells are less affected by neonatal cortical lesions than are midget-pathway cells.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. INTERPRETATION: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Rare edges and abundant cores: range-wide variation in abundance in North American birds.

Understanding how the abundance of species varies across geographical ranges is central to ecology; however, few studies test hypotheses using detailed abundance estimates across the full ranges of species on a continental scale. Here, we use unprecedented, detailed estimates of breeding abundance for North American birds (eBird) to test two hypotheses for how abundance varies across species' ranges. We find widespread support for the rare-edge hypothesis-where the abundance of species declines near the range edge-reflecting both reduced occurrence and lower local abundance near range edges. By contrast, we find mixed support for the abundant-centre hypothesis-where the abundance of species peaks in the centre of the range and declines towards the edges-with limited support in conservative tests within species, but general support in among-species tests that control for unbalanced sampling and consider a broader definition of the range centre. Overall, results are consistent with a gradual decline in suitable conditions and increase in challenge towards the range edge that eventually limit the ability of populations to persist.

Urban tolerance does not protect against population decline in North American birds.

Population declines of organisms are widespread and severe, but some species' populations have remained stable, or even increased. The reasons some species are less vulnerable to population decline than others are not well understood. Species that tolerate urban environments often have a broader environmental tolerance, which, along with their ability to tolerate one of the most human-modified habitats (i.e. cities), might allow them to persist in the face of diverse anthropogenic challenges. Here, we examined the relationship between urban tolerance and annual population trajectories for 397 North American bird species. Surprisingly, we found that urban tolerance was unrelated to species' population trajectories. The lack of a relationship between urban tolerance and population trajectories may reflect other factors driving population declines independent of urban tolerance, challenges that are amplified in cities (e.g. climate warming, disease), and other human impacts (e.g. conservation efforts, broad-scale land-use changes) that have benefitted some urban-avoidant species. Overall, our results illustrate that urban tolerance does not protect species against population decline.

Behavioural factors matter for the adoption of climate-smart agriculture.

Increasing agricultural productivity while ensuring environmental sustainability are two important targets in achieving the sustainable development goals under climatic shocks. In this regard, different climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices have been recommended and promoted to meet these goals and targets. However, the adoption of these practices remains low and variable. For the most part, low adoption has been attributed to external factors. Behavioural and psychological factors also matter but have received little empirical and policy attention. In this study, we examine the relationship between aspirations, aspiration gaps, and the adoption of CSA practices such as crop rotation, intercropping, fallowing, and organic soil amendments. Employing parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques on a pooled farm household survey from Cameroon and Kenya, we show that aspirations are associated with the use of crop rotation and organic soil amendments. We also investigate the theorized non-monotonic inverse U-shaped relationship between aspiration gaps and investments. We find evidence of this relationship for the adoption of these CSA practices, suggesting an aspiration failure for smallholder farmers. These results imply that aspirations that are ahead but not too far ahead of the current state serve as the best incentives for stimulating the adoption of CSA practices. Employing the multivariate probit model, we further highlight interdependencies in the use of these CSA practices. Specifically, we underscore significant complementarities, suggesting the bundled use of these practices. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that aspirations matter for farmer decision-making with many implications for agricultural, food, and environmental policies.

Prediction error drives associative learning and conditioned behavior in a spiking model of Drosophila larva.

Predicting reinforcement from sensory cues is beneficial for goal-directed behavior. In insect brains, underlying associations between cues and reinforcement, encoded by dopaminergic neurons, are formed in the mushroom body. We propose a spiking model of the Drosophila larva mushroom body. It includes a feedback motif conveying learned reinforcement expectation to dopaminergic neurons, which can compute prediction error as the difference between expected and present reinforcement. We demonstrate that this can serve as a driving force in learning. When combined with synaptic homeostasis, our model accounts for theoretically derived features of acquisition and loss of associations that depend on the intensity of the reinforcement and its temporal proximity to the cue. From modeling olfactory learning over the time course of behavioral experiments and simulating the locomotion of individual larvae toward or away from odor sources in a virtual environment, we conclude that learning driven by prediction errors can explain larval behavior.

Clinical and functional spectrum of RAC2-related immunodeficiency.

ABSTRACT: Mutations in the small Rho-family guanosine triphosphate hydrolase RAC2, critical for actin cytoskeleton remodeling and intracellular signal transduction, are associated with neonatal severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID), infantile neutrophilic disorder resembling leukocyte adhesion deficiency (LAD), and later-onset combined immune deficiency (CID). We investigated 54 patients (23 previously reported) from 37 families yielding 15 novel RAC2 missense mutations, including one present only in homozygosity. Data were collected from referring physicians and literature reports with updated clinical information. Patients were grouped by presentation: neonatal SCID (n = 5), infantile LAD-like disease (n = 5), or CID (n = 44). Disease correlated to RAC2 activity: constitutively active RAS-like mutations caused neonatal SCID, dominant-negative mutations caused LAD-like disease, whereas dominant-activating mutations caused CID. Significant T- and B-lymphopenia with low immunoglobulins were seen in most patients; myeloid abnormalities included neutropenia, altered oxidative burst, impaired neutrophil migration, and visible neutrophil macropinosomes. Among 42 patients with CID with clinical data, upper and lower respiratory infections and viral infections were common. Twenty-three distinct RAC2 mutations, including 15 novel variants, were identified. Using heterologous expression systems, we assessed downstream effector functions including superoxide production, p21-activated kinase 1 binding, AKT activation, and protein stability. Confocal microscopy showed altered actin assembly evidenced by membrane ruffling and macropinosomes. Altered protein localization and aggregation were observed. All tested RAC2 mutant proteins exhibited aberrant function; no single assay was sufficient to determine functional consequence. Most mutants produced elevated superoxide; mutations unable to support superoxide formation were associated with bacterial infections. RAC2 mutations cause a spectrum of immune dysfunction, ranging from early onset SCID to later-onset combined immunodeficiencies depending on RAC2 activity. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00001355 and #NCT00001467.

Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy Signals of Larsucosterol (DUR-928) in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis.

INTRODUCTION: This study is to evaluate the safety and pharmacokinetics (PK) of larsucosterol (DUR-928 or 25HC3S) in subjects with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), a devastating acute illness without US Food and Drug Administration-approved therapies. METHODS: This phase 2a, multicenter, open-label, dose escalation study evaluated the safety, PK, and efficacy signals of larsucosterol in 19 clinically diagnosed subjects with AH. Based on the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, 7 subjects were considered to have moderate AH and 12 to have severe AH. All subjects received 1 or 2 intravenous infusions (72 hours apart) of larsucosterol at a dose of 30, 90, or 150 mg and were followed up for 28 days. Efficacy signals from a subgroup of subjects with severe AH were compared with those from 2 matched arms of those with severe AH treated with standard of care (SOC), including corticosteroids, from a contemporaneous study. RESULTS: All 19 larsucosterol-treated subjects survived the 28-day study. Fourteen (74%) of all subjects including 8 (67%) of the subjects with severe AH were discharged ≤72 hours after receiving a single infusion. There were no drug-related serious adverse events nor early terminations due to the treatment. PK profiles were not affected by disease severity. Biochemical parameters improved in most subjects. Serum bilirubin levels declined notably from baseline to day 7 and day 28, and MELD scores were reduced at day 28. The efficacy signals compared favorably with those from 2 matched groups treated with SOC. Lille scores at day 7 were <0.45 in 16 of the 18 (89%) subjects with day 7 samples. Lille scores from 8 subjects with severe AH who received 30 or 90 mg larsucosterol (doses used in phase 2b trial) were statistically significantly lower ( P < 0.01) than those from subjects with severe AH treated with SOC from the contemporaneous study. DISCUSSION: Larsucosterol was well tolerated at all 3 doses in subjects with AH without safety concerns. Data from this pilot study showed promising efficacy signals in subjects with AH. Larsucosterol is being evaluated in a phase 2b multicenter, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled (AHFIRM) trial.

The competitive exclusion-tolerance rule explains habitat partitioning among co-occurring species of burying beetles.

Habitat partitioning among co-occurring, ecologically similar species is widespread in nature and thought to be an important mechanism for coexistence. The factors that cause habitat partitioning, however, are unknown for most species. We experimentally tested among three alternative hypotheses to explain habitat partitioning among two species of co-occurring burying beetle (Nicrophorus) that occupy forest (Nicrophorus orbicollis) and wetland (Nicrophorus hebes) habitats. Captive experiments revealed that the larger N. orbicollis (forest) was consistently dominant to N. hebes (wetland) in competitive interactions for carcasses that they require for reproduction. Transplant enclosure experiments in nature revealed that N. hebes had poor reproductive success whenever the dominant N. orbicollis was present. In the absence of N. orbicollis, N. hebes performed as well, or better, in forest versus its typical wetland habitat. In contrast, N. orbicollis performed poorly in wetlands regardless of the presence of N. hebes. These results support the competitive exclusion-tolerance rule where the competitively dominant N. orbicollis excludes the subordinate N. hebes from otherwise suitable or preferable forest habitat, while the subordinate N. hebes is uniquely able to tolerate the challenges of breeding in wetlands. Transplant experiments further showed that carcass burial depth-an important trait thought to enhance the competitive ability of the dominant N. orbicollis-is costly in wetland habitats. In the presence of N. hebes, N. orbicollis buried carcasses deeper; deeper burial is thought to provide a competitive advantage in forests but further compromised the reproductive success of N. orbicollis in wetlands. Overall, results provide evidence that the competitive exclusion-tolerance rule underlies habitat partitioning among ecologically similar species and that the traits important for competitive dominance in relatively benign environments are costly in more challenging environments, consistent with a trade-off.

Liver Stiffness Measurement and Risk Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After HCV Eradication in Veterans With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis secondary to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) are at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) despite a sustained virological response (SVR). We examined whether post-SVR liver stiffness measurement (LSM) could be used to stratify HCC risk. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 1850 participants identified from the Veterans Health Administration, with HCV cirrhosis and SVR, followed up over 5099 person-years, from the time of post-SVR elastography until death, HCC, or the end of the study. RESULTS: The risk of HCC increased by 3% with every 1-kPa increase in LSM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.04; P < .001) and decreased with the number of years from SVR (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.90; P = .0003). The adjusted annual risk of HCC was 2.03% among participants with post-SVR LSM <10 kPa, 2.48% in LSM 10-14.9 kPa (aHR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.01-2.88; P = .046), 3.22% for LSM 15-19.9 kPa (aHR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.78-3.20; P = .20), 5.07% among LSM 20-24.9 kPa (aHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.30-5.01; P = .01), and 5.44% in LSM ≥25 kPa (aHR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.74-5.26; P < .0001). The adjusted annual risk of HCC was < 0.4% in participants with LSM <5 kPa and without diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSIONS: LSM predicts rates of HCC in patients with HCV cirrhosis after SVR at multiple cutoff levels and offers a single test to predict portal hypertension-related complications and HCC. Patients with LSM <5 kPa in the absence of diabetes mellitus had a low risk of HCC in which surveillance could be discontinued.

Predictors of New Onset Atrial Fibrillation Burden in the Critically Ill.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting and has been associated with adverse outcomes. In this context, there is increasing research interest in AF burden as a predictor of subsequent adverse events. However, the pathophysiology and drivers of AF burden in the ICU are poorly understood. This study sought to evaluate the predictors of AF burden in critical illness-associated new-onset AF (CI-NOAF). METHODS: Out of 7,030 admissions in a tertiary general ICU between December 2015 and September 2018, 309 patients developed CI-NOAF. AF burden was defined as the percentage of monitored time in AF, as extracted from hourly interpretations of continuous ECG monitoring. Low and high AF burden groups were defined relative to the median AF burden. Clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic parameters were extracted, and multivariable modelling with binary logistic regression was performed to evaluate for independent associations with AF burden. RESULTS: The median AF burden was 7.0%. Factors associated with increased AF burden were age, dyslipidaemia, chronic kidney disease, increased creatinine, CHA2DS2-VASc score, ICU admission diagnosis category, amiodarone administration, and left atrial area (LAA). Factors associated with lower AF burden were previous alcohol excess, burden of ventilation, the use of inotropes/vasopressors, and beta blockers. On multivariate analysis, increased LAA, chronic kidney disease, and amiodarone use were independently associated with increased AF burden, whereas beta blocker use was associated with lower AF burden. CONCLUSION: Left atrial size and chronic cardiovascular comorbidities appear to be the primary drivers of CI-NOAF burden, whereas factors related to acute illness and critical care intervention paradoxically did not appear to be a substantial driver of arrhythmia burden. Further research is needed regarding drivers of AF and the efficacy of rhythm control intervention in this unique setting.

Delivering bad or difficult news. An innovative simulation-based education approach to prepare interdisciplinary fellowships.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data on the effectiveness of training interventions to improve the delivery of bad news. METHODS: This preliminary research included pre-post assessments and an open-ended survey to evaluate the effectiveness and perceived value of training on delivering bad news for 26 first- and second-year fellows from five adult and pediatric fellowship programs. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in faculty assessment scores (34.5 vs. 41.0, respectively, Z = -3.661, p < 0.001) and Standardized Patient (SP) assessment scores (37.5 vs .44.5, respectively, Z = -2.244, p = 0.025). Fellows valued having a standard framework to aid in the delivery of bad news; receiving targeted feedback and having the opportunity to apply their skills in a subsequent case. CONCLUSIONS: A one-hour, four-phase lesson plan that includes an individualized training approach and simulation do-overs can be effective and valuable for preparing fellows to deliver bad news.